Every December, Origin's braintrust convenes with the goal of asking one single question - what are our predictions for CTV and CTV advertising next year?
We only 2 rules:
We cannot repeat something we've predicted in the past (more on that in a moment).
We cannot double down on something that is clearly already in motion (such as the matter of 'attention' which over the course of 2023 has gone from gentle whisper to deafening crescendo).
SPOILER ALERT!
Do not expect to see all the usual stuff about 'measurement', 'frequency' and other equally obvious, safe or orthodox topics.
We don't do safe, obvious or orthodox.
Before we dive into our CTV predictions for 2024, you might enjoy taking a moment to see what we've predicted over the last two years. The reason being that anyone can make predictions and be right once (or make predictions so vague they can't be wrong), but to date we have been neither vague nor right only once:
When it comes to 2024, it was clear to us out the gate that there was a clear theme emerging through our discussion - the need for CTV to start 'doing more' for brands.
The signals we used to interpret our predictions are simple and are seated largely in what we're seeing and hearing from our own clients vs what the world around us is saying - so bear that in mind.
So, without further ado, here is a short rundown of what we predict will be key CTV advertising focus points for agencies and brands in 2024.
Artificial Intelligence (AI).
While most talk of AI today is seated in adtech and its ability to 'learn' and improve on campaign efficiency, we see AI in 2024 being about
Its use in the creative itself - namely imagery and copy, using signals interpreted from the inbound ad request. For this to work, you need deeply agile creative capabilities (which of course we lead the field in at Origin).
The use of AI to help us decode market responses (aka brand study data) to different creative versioning being tested and helping us optimize and improve the creative for the next time it's seen by the viewer.
Performance (finally defining it).
This one is a bit of a cheat, because it is quite literally the biggest part of any discussion we have with our clients. However, performance on CTV is still an area being debated in terms of its meaning and definition - and 2023 was all about that (you can see the articles we wrote while on that journey here:
In other words, what we predict for 2024 is that the industry will finally converge and agree on the best definition of performance in CTV advertising.
Benchmarking.
With budgets being consolidated and teams taking over other teams' budgets, the rules around what the right 'benchmarks for success' are will have a chance to be rewritten with fresh eyes.
However, for this to happen, our prediction above about performance needs to a finished task which of course we think it will be (at some point anyway).
ROAS/ROI.
As anyone who follows what we do and talk about will already know, we see ROAS/ROI for CTV as it sits within a larger mixed media model being front and centre of pretty much everything above.
When you consider all of our predictions above, you're almost looking at a required 'daisy chain' of events that need to fall into place - which will ultimately accumulate to rules being set by brands as to what they want to see back.
In fact, we think this particular topic is SO IMPORTANT that we are hosting a 45 minute live discussion about exactly this on 1/18 - it's a virtual panel and you are cordially invited to listen in. To sign up, click here.
Creativity
Before we talk about the creative side of our CTV predictions for 2024, watch our 50 second mission statement -
Ok. So this is the real culminating point of everything above, because whether we like it or not - NOTHING ABOVE MATTERS OR WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE IF THE CREATIVE DOESN'T ALLOW IT TO HAPPEN.
The creative is what the viewer sees. It is what they will inform their decisions on and in a world where viewers are so much more fickle than they've ever been, its not the targeting or measurement that will get a product sold, it's their decision to a) pay attention to your message (which requires a new creative approach) and b) relate to it. This requires a new kind of storytelling that we have seen a tidal wave of demand from with our clients and something which we believe will become a mainstream requirement in 2024.
The point we're making here is that when we entered into 2023, the importance of the creative was a barely audible echo in the hallways of agencies around the country. Now, the story is different.
So there you have it. A veritable daisy chain of predictions, all of which are interwoven and interconnected. There is no specific order in which all this needs to happen, but they do all need to happen if CTV is to deliver on its promise. And we believe it will happen.
Origin is an award-winning creative technology company whose zero code CTV ad formats give marketers unparalleled creative liberty in the living room and outside the home.
Fusing pioneering production techniques with proprietary technology and direct distribution, Origin's solutions are embraced by media agencies, brands, creative teams and programmatic platforms who understand the value of being able to deliver relevant, engaging and ‘in the moment’ ad experiences to their audience.
Founded by media veterans Stephen Strong and Fred Godfrey, Origin is driven by the simple belief that the time has come to challenge tradition and enrage the status quo. Learn more at www.originmedia.tv.