More Dollars, More Scrutiny, More Measurement, More Creative Agility...More Is On The Way For CTV in 2026

If it’s not the case already, then by the end of 2026 it's all but guaranteed that the Connected TV (CTV) market will feel less like a ‘TV competitor’ - and more like ‘TV’. Advertisers are continuing to tilt dollars toward this big-screen, with forecasts showing U.S. CTV ad spend climbing substantially versus legacy TV - all being fed by a ferocious blend of client direct spend and programmatic buying.

Household reach: broad but still ‘in pieces’

Most industry trackers now put CTV penetration in the U.S. well north of 100 million households and trending higher. Estimates commonly range from roughly 110–120 million CTV households today, and by the end of 2026 that addressable base is expected to expand modestly as more homes:

• Adopt smart TVs and streaming devices.

• Find they now get everything they want from CTV and can eliminate the cost of their traditional services.

That scale gives advertisers the mass reach they want, but the audience is still spread across a plethora of environments (many of them ‘walled’), which means reach and frequency management remain operational challenges and will almost certain continue to be a challenge through next year.

Why budgets keep shifting to CTV

Four forces are at play when it comes to the ongoing reallocation of budgets from social, mobile and desktop video into CTV:

1. Brands want sight, sound and scale on the big screen where attention metrics are stronger.

2. The ‘democratization’ of access to small spenders (eg local business) is taking shape as new creative solutions are coming to market which are designed to appeal to those who previously saw the cost of even the creative being out of reach.

3. Programmatic CTV infrastructure and measurement are maturing, making spend more efficient.

4. Recent ad-tech investments and startup activity reflect a broader expectation that meaningful dollars will move back toward TV-formats with strong targeting and attribution. 

Expect to see pronounced movement in marketing plans in 2026 as finance and media teams reweigh mixes toward CTV for both upper-funnel and direct-response objectives - all of which is in addition to net new dollars coming in from major brands who have simply yet to embrace the reality that this is where their audiences now are.

Predicted ad spend - conservative to bullish scenarios

Forecasts vary, but one consistent outlook is rapid growth continuing through 2026. Recent industry forecasts projecting that U.S. CTV ad spend could tip over $40bn. When compared to traditional TV ad spend forecasts, that makes 2026 a “scale and sophistication” year with eMarketer pointing out that the perfect storm of more dollars, more scrutiny, more fraud control and more measurement could prove too much for the hold-outs to resist.

Brand expectations and creative evolution

While it is true that many brands are already there, in 2026 we will see far more advertisers hunting not only for reach - but outcomes. Creative production will shift accordingly, with significantly more dynamic creative treatment and contextualized messaging sitting top of mind.

How 2026’s headline events will rewrite plans

Two major, known calendar events will heavily influence media markets in 2026:

1. The FIFA World Cup (hosted in the U.S., Canada and Mexico in June/July) creates a massive premium inventory window for advertisers seeking mass live reach and sports-adjacent audiences - expect travel, hospitality, retail and quick-service categories to compete aggressively for CTV inventory tied to match broadcasts and second-screen activations.

2. The U.S. mid-term election cycle will push significant political TV spend, which historically benefits broadcast and linear inventory but will also increase competition and CPMs across premium CTV inventory tied to news and sports programming. Marketers should plan for higher prices and potential flighting around these peaks, and build flexible buys to capture reach without overspending during CPM spikes.

Practical takeaways for planners thinking ahead to 2026

• Treat CTV as a core channel: allocate line items for both brand reach and performance-focused CTV buys.

• Buy for incrementality: prioritize tactics and measurement that prove incremental reach vs. linear and eg social.

• Build calendar-aware buys: lock in deals early, and reserve budget for event-driven opportunistic buys (World Cup, elections).

• Leverage the creative control that modern solutions can now give you, which you didn’t have before. Think about the success you’ve had being hyper-relevant on social and use solutions such as Origin’s to expand the effectiveness of 

Bottom line

2026 will be the year when scale and sophistication collide on CTV. With more households, bigger budgets, and higher brand expectations - advertisers who plan wisely and who build in contingencies for event-driven volatility will, without doubt, extract the best returns.

If you find this topic interesting and would like to know more, you can schedule a consultation with one of Origin's CTV specialists by clicking here.

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Origin is a multi-award winning provider of creative solutions and services for media buyers, creative teams and brands who want to transform conventional CTV ad creatives into powerful, personal and provocative advertising experiences.

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Founded by media veterans Stephen Strong and Fred Godfrey, Origin is driven by the belief that winning viewers today requires breaking free from how it was done yesterday.

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